An early look at each game, can Miami go 11-6?
The NFL released the 2022 schedule this past Thursday night which means it’s time for a way too early season prediction.
As I’ve written before the Dolphins have paved a way to positioned themselves to take the next step in their rebuild. They moved on from coach Flores to Mike McDaniel in hopes of bringing stability to the offense. To McDaniel’s credit, he was able to bring in quality coaches on the offensive side of the ball and keep the majority of the defensive staff together.
On paper the team is better than 2021, the only question which remains is if coach McDaniel can be the leader general manager Chris Grier is hoping for.
Week 1
For the third straight year Miami opens the seasons against New England. The Patriots are taking a page out of the Brian Flores book as they head into off season programs without a singular voice of their offense. Recent reports suggest there will be an open competition for the coordinator position, with coaches Matt Patricia and Joe Judge standing as the front runners. Let’s give Miami the win to start the season on a good note 1-0.
Week 2
Week 2 is a difficult match up, away against the Baltimore Ravens. Although Miami surprised the league beating the Ravens on Thursday night in November. Historically Baltimore has owned Miami, over their past 7 match ups the Ravens have won 5. I imagine Miami tries to play a similar defense against the Ravens as they did in 2021, but this time I believe the Ravens will be prepared. They also had a lot of injuries bye the time they played Miami. Miami falls to 1-1.
Week 3
The Bills at home early on the year?! This game is what you call a litmus test. Buffalo has bested Miami 7 times in a row. With the emergence of Josh Allen as a top tier QB Buffalo have found themselves making post season runs, twice losing at the hands of the Chiefs. For the first time in the Sean McDermott era, the Bills having to deal with attrition with their coaching staff. Former OC Brian Daboll departed to head coach of the New York Giants and took a number of coaches with him. The Bills offense will be led by former Miami Hurricane QB, Ken Dorsey. Buffalo made additions along the offensive line, WR Jamison Crowder, and RB James Cook in the second round of the draft. Buffalo still stands to be the leader of the AFC East, Miami falls to 1-2.
Week 4
At Cincinnati, against Joe Borrow and the reigning AFC Champions. The Bengals almost put a bow on their Cinderella story last year, but fell short in the Super Bowl. Although the team is better off now than before Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati franchise is among the worst in the NFL. The Dolphins defense matches up well against their offense, and I don’t really believe in Zac Taylor as a head coach, and for that Miami gets the win, 2-2.
Week 5
Second straight game on the road, this time the God damn Jets. The first 4 weeks of the season will be tough, weeks 5-12 the Dolphins need to pick up a big chunk of their wins. New York had a pretty good draft, yet they are still ways away from competing. Can Zach Wilson take a step forward? I doubt it. With 5 being a Thursday night game, Miami has more time to rest and prepare, they get back above .500, 3-2.
Week 6
The Minnesota Vikings come to town. Although the Vikings possess fire power on offense, their defense is long in the tooth. It’s still relatively hot in mid October, I expect Miami to grind this game out and get a quality win, 4-2.
Week 7
Miami will be playing in primetime against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Rumor has it the Dolphins had some say in their opponent to celebrate the 50th anniversary of their 1972 Perfect Season (Miami beat them in the AFC Championship during the 1972 season). Pittsburgh typically plays tough, but are you scared of Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett? The Dolphins defense should be able to dominate in this match up. Miami extends their winning streak to 3 games, 5-2.
Week 8
Week 8 is in Detroit and former Dolphins interim head coach Dan Campbell is the leader of the Detroit Lions. It could have the feels of a revenge game. Besides that there isn’t much that scares you against the Lions, ( although rumor has it they bite knee caps). The Dolphins take advantage of a team with an inferior roster earning themselves a fourth win in a row, 6-2.
Week 9
Miami plays their third game in four weeks against a NFC North opponent, week 9 is away in Chicago. New Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is tasked with developing Justin Fields with a mediocre at best roster. Heck, I think Detroit has a better team than Chicago at this moment. The Dolphins get their 5th win in a row, 7-2.
Week 10
Miami returns home to play the Cleveland Browns. This game is difficult to predict as there is an unknown regarding Deshaun Watson’s availability. I imagine he gets suspended part of the year as he was out all of last season (not actually suspended though). Cleveland has a strong running game. It’s difficult to imagine Miami anything other than marginally better in defending the run. I am going to assume Deshaun will be back by this game. Miami’s win streak ends at five, 7-3.
Week 11
Bye week.
Week 12
Before their three game road trip Miami hosts the Houston Texans. In no way shape or form should the Dolphins lose this game. It is coming off a bye week and the team has a difficult 3 game stretch following it so they should be focused, 8-3.
Week 13
On the road against San Francisco. A match of of mentor versus apprentice as coach McDaniel faces off against Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have quality players throughout their roster and a very good coach, I believe the Dolphins will be well positioned to win this game. Biggest reason why, is Trey Lance. Although is a dynamic athlete it’s difficult to imagine him making a leap in year two like Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Miami’s defense should be able to smother the 49ers offense, 9-3.
Week 14
Miami’s second road game on the west coast. It is reasonable to suggest the team will stay out west. Similar to Miami, the Chargers have barely missed the play offs the last two seasons. This game will receive a lot of attention around the quarterback position as we are well aware the Dolphins chose Tua over Justin Herbert in the 2020 NFL draft. Los Angeles has done a great job this offseason adding players such as JC Jackson at corner and successfully investing into their offensive line the past two seasons. The Chargers get the win over Miami, 9-4.
Week 15
The second match up against the Bills, this time in Orchard Park. This game has the possibility for inclement weather as it takes place December 18 and rounding out a three week stretch of road games, I view this as Miami’s most difficult match up of the season. Until I see the Dolphins beat the Bills, I have no reason to believe they will. Miami drops to 9-5.
Week 16
A Christmas day game against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers! At this point in the season lets hope both teams are jockeying for a play spot. I believe the Dolphins match up favorably in this game as well. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard can lock down the Packers' below average receivers, keeping Rodgers at bay. As we have seen multiple times the 49ers have been able to run the ball on the Packers defense. Offensively if McDaniel & Co. can get similar play out of the offense Miami should be positioned to win this game. Let’s give them the push here, 10-5.
Week 17
A New Years Day game against the Patriots. The Dolphins have had the Patriots number the past couple years winning their last 3 match ups prior to 2022. A potential cold weather game as well. I am going to give us a loss here for two reasons. One, I believe we will split the Patriots this year. Two, I’m sure I was too optimistic with some of my other picks so let’s throw in a loss. Dolphins lose, 10-6.
Week 18
Last game of the season, can’t hold anything back now. In a very competitive AFC the Dolphins can’t afford to only have 10 wins and so this match up is important to them while the Jets will be packing up for the offseason. Miami defeats the Jets finishing the season at 11-6.
Expectations in south Florida are expecting the Dolphins to be better this year, even with a rookie head coach. It is a big year for Chris Grier as this season he put some of his final touches on the roster that is ready to compete now. Evident by the trade for Tyreek Hill, signings of Terron Armstead, Sony Michel, Evan Ingram, etc.
McDaniel can leave on the experience of his coaching staff to avoid some of the mistakes first year head coaches make. In return Miami makes the play offs for the first time since 2016 and gets their first 11 win season since 2008.